New Jersey’s first detailed look at the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is in—and on paper, it’s a quieter year. But “quieter” in hurricane language never means “safe,” especially along the Jersey Shore.

How many storms are forecast in 2026?

Colorado State University (CSU), one of the most closely watched seasonal outlook teams, is calling for a slightly below‑average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026.

Their current forecast:

• 13 named storms
• 6 hurricanes
• 2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

That’s a bit less active than last season, which featured more major hurricanes, but still plenty of opportunity for impactful storms somewhere along the East Coast.

What does this mean specifically for New Jersey?

CSU also breaks down the odds of a storm coming close to each state. For New Jersey, the 2026 outlook shows:

• 16% chance of a named storm passing within 50 miles of the state
• 5% chance of a hurricane passing within 50 miles
• Near 0% chance of a major hurricane (Category 3+) passing within 50 miles

All of those numbers are below the long‑term average, which lines up with the idea of a slightly less active season overall. But it only takes one storm tracking the “wrong” way for New Jersey to have a memorable season—something residents know well from past systems like Irene, Sandy, and Ida.

Why the forecast is lower than average

The big driver behind the quieter‑than‑normal outlook is the expected shift to El Niño conditions in the Pacific by mid‑summer.

• El Niño tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic—strong winds aloft that can disrupt developing tropical systems.
• Stronger trade winds from Africa to the Caribbean can also stabilize the atmosphere and limit storm formation.

At the same time, other ingredients—like warm Atlantic waters—still support storm development. So the forecast is a tug‑of‑war: El Niño trying to suppress storms, warm water trying to fuel them.

When does hurricane season start, and what’s happening now?

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has already begun issuing its daily Tropical Weather Outlooks for 2026.

• Outlooks started in mid‑May and will continue through the end of November.
• As of the latest update, the NHC is not monitoring any areas of concern in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.

Early‑season storms in May are rare, but not unheard of, which is why those outlooks begin before the official season.

2026 storm names you might hear

If a system in the Atlantic reaches tropical storm strength this year, it will get a name from the 2026 Atlantic hurricane list, which includes:

Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred.

Some of those names—like Fay and Isaias—may sound familiar to New Jersey residents who remember recent storm seasons.

What New Jersey residents should do now

A below‑average forecast is not a free pass to ignore hurricane prep. For coastal and inland New Jersey, flooding, wind, and power outages can come from even a weak tropical storm or a post‑tropical system.

Here are a few smart steps to take before the season ramps up:

• Review your flood risk: Check whether your home or business is in a flood‑prone area and understand local evacuation routes.
• Update your emergency kit: Include water, non‑perishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, chargers, and important documents.
• Secure your property: Trim trees, clear gutters, and think about how you’d secure outdoor furniture or equipment before a storm.
• Check your insurance: Confirm your coverage for wind and flood—standard homeowners policies typically do not cover flood damage.
• Stay plugged into local alerts: Sign up for local emergency notifications and follow trusted weather sources for updates as the season unfolds.

The bottom line for 2026

For New Jersey, the 2026 hurricane season is projected to be less active than average, with lower‑than‑normal odds of a direct hit. But seasonal outlooks are big‑picture guidance, not a guarantee.

One well‑placed storm can define an entire season for the Garden State—so the smart move is to treat this forecast as a window of opportunity to get ready, not a reason to relax.